In October of 1950, General Douglas MacArthur promised his troops in Korea that they’d be home by Christmas.
It was an optimistic promise, maybe you’d call it foolish. The Korean War had just started that June and, as we now know, wouldn’t end until the summer of 1953. MacArthur didn’t come anywhere close to getting those boys home by Christmas.
MacArthur wasn’t just blowing smoke. He truly believed that the North Koreans were weak, disorganized, and lacking in both weapons and significant allies. So when the Chinese came marching in to aid their satellite government in Pyongyang, the game changed significantly.
MacArthur’s failure to deliver on his promise was demoralizing to the troops, but it also had serious implications when it came to having them prepared and outfitted for the cold weather.
In his book, “About Face,” Colonel David Hackworth described the situation on the ground:
“Winter had arrived but winter gear had not. MacArthur had said we’d be home before Christmas. I guess his supply people believed him, because the Chinese had caught us with our pants down, and they were summer trousers.”
Logistics wins wars. And it seems that the people managing those logistics had internalized MacArthur’s promise and took their foot off the gas when it came to preparing for the winter months. Hackworth described it this way:
“Feet in leather boots froze. Gloves and mittens were as scarce as good-looking girls. Our field jackets were as thin and protective as page one of the newspaper. We were slowly freezing to death in the bitter below-zero weather, while the Chinese, like Genghis Khan’s mighty hordes, marched on, seemingly unstoppable.”
Interestingly, this wasn’t the first time that a military force had been caught unprepared for winter. Napoleon’s foot soldiers had suffered through a brutal winter in Russia more than a century earlier, also thinking that they’d have their campaign wrapped up before the cold weather arrived. And then in World War II, the Nazis marched into Stalingrad where they endured a miserable, bloody winter that they weren’t prepared for.
There’s a lesson to be learned in these military failures. While there’s a time and place for positivity and optimism, anytime you’re planning the logistics of something (whether it’s a military campaign or your retirement), it’s important to prepare for the worst case scenario.
When discussing their retirement plans, I’ve heard people make statements that sound similar to MacArthur’s “home by Christmas” decree…
“I’ve averaged more than a 10% annual return in my 401k for the last decade. If I can just keep that up through retirement, I’ll be fine.”
“Our long term care plan is that we’re just going to take care of each other as we age.”
“I’ll be inheriting a lot of money from my mom whenever she passes.”
“We can always cut back on spending if we have to.”
“If I get to the point that I can’t take care of myself, I’ll just move in with my kids.”
“I’d rather defer those taxes until later in life because I’ll be in a lower tax bracket when I’m retired.”
You can probably see the optimism dripping from these statements. But what if that fantastic investment return you’ve enjoyed for the last decade isn’t a realistic expectation for future decades? What if your kids aren’t in a position to have you move in with them down the road—or maybe they just don’t want you to? What if something goes wrong with your mom and that inheritance you’re expecting doesn’t actually materialize?
There’s a lot that can go wrong in both military and monetary matters. Make sure that you’re prepared for the worst so that you don’t end up freezing your butt off on the Korean peninsula of retirement.